External Validation of Pooled Cohort Risk Equations to Predict 1-Year Clinical Outcome in Ischemic Stroke Patients

BACKGROUND The present study aimed to validate the pooled cohort risk (PCR) equations in a Chinese ischemic stroke population and to explore its prognostic value in predicting stroke recurrence, coronary heart disease, and vascular death. MATERIAL AND METHODS Patients were selected from the China National Stroke Registry. The C statistic was used to examine the clinical prediction of the scores. To analyze the relevant risk factors, univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed. RESULTS Out of a total of 22 216 patients, 8287 patients (including 7652 acute ischemic stroke [AIS] and 635 transient ischemic attack [TIA] patients) were selected and enrolled in the study. At 1-year follow-up, for stroke recurrence rate, the C statistic value was 0.584 in AIS patients and 0.573 in all patients. For non-fatal myocardial infarction, the C statistic value was 0.533 in AIS patients and 0.493 in all patients. For vascular death, the C statistic value was 0.592 in AIS patients and 0.592 in all patients. For all events, the C statistic value was 0.582 in AIS patients and 0.575 in all patients. For AIS patients, the 12-month cumulative rates for recurrent stroke, vascular death, and combined vascular events were higher in the high-PCR group (PCR ≥20%). CONCLUSIONS Pooled cohort risk equations may serve as potential tools to predict and stratify the 1-year risk of recurrent stroke and combined vascular events in AIS/TIA patients in China.